The UFC heads to New Jersey for 288 with Bantamweight Champion Aljamain Sterling defending his title against the returning Henry Cejudo. I am personally still mourning the loss of the Charles Oliveira vs Beniel Dariush match up, but we still have a pretty good line up for this PPV. (Especially considering the short notice matches.) Now let’s get into the fun stuff….here are my picks for Saturday night!
UFC 288 Preview and Picks
Kron Gracie (5-1) vs Charles Jourdain (13-6-1)
Featherweight
The main card opens with Kron Gracie vs Charles Jourdain. Gracie was on a 5 fight win streak, where he submitted every single opponent, until his 2019 loss to Cub Swanson. He has not fought since. Luckily, the time off had nothing to do with injuries. The pandemic played a factor, but also a big move to Montana where Gracie opened a new gym. Kron has said that the length of the break was unintentional and that he is healthy and ready to fight! On the flip side, his opponent, Jourdain, has been incredibly active. He has fought a whopping 9 times since Gracie took time off! He is also the younger of the two fighters, but I do think that despite his activity, there are some red flag factors in that activity. His record for those 9 fights is 4-4-1, he has been taken down 17 times, and one of those losses is by submission. One submission loss isn’t enough to worry about on its own, but his takedown defense against the likes of a Gracie is definitely questionable. If not for the lifestyle and skill set of Kron Gracie, I would pick Jourdain based on activity alone. We know he has continued training and has a lifetime of competitive experience. I could easily be wrong, but I feel like we won’t see such a massive amount of ring rust that he won’t be able to utilize his grappling and get a finish.
Pick: Gracie by submission
Movsar Evloev (16-0) vs. Diego Lopes (21-5)
Featherweight
While I am happy that we still get the return of Movsar Evloev, I can’t help, but still be sad at the loss of his original match up against Bryce Mitchell. Diego Lopes is an experienced fighter who has been on the UFC radar for a minute. He has solid grappling skills with 11 submission wins, he competed on Dana White’s Contender Series, and he is on a two fight winning streak. I give him major kudos for stepping up on 5 day’s notice, but I find it hard to be hopeful for his UFC debut to be a successful one simply because his Russian opponent is such a beast. Evloev’s skills are no joke. Six of his wins have been in the UFC and I don’t see his current run ending yet.
Pick: Evloev by submission
Jessica Andrade (24-10) vs. Yan Xiaonan (16-3-1NC)
Strawweight
This match up between Yan and Andrade should be a banger. Both women like to throw hands and that is always fun for us as fans! My pick is an easy one, however. While Yan has some solid skills, I just don’t see her coming out on top over the force that is Jessica Andrade. Despite losing her last fight against up and comer Erin Blanchfield, I don’t think Andrade has missed a step. Her power, aggressiveness, experience, and all around skill set makes this her fight to lose.
Pick: Andrade by TKO
Co-Main Event
Belal Muhammed (22-3-1NC) vs Gilbert Burns (22-5)
Welterweight
This match up between these two top ranked welterweights should be a number one contender fight for the next shot at the title, but somehow that spot still appears to be reserved for Colby Covington. Lucky for us, Muhammed and Burns are determined to actually fight to cement their place for next in line. Burns has already fought twice in 2023, with his last fight being less than a month ago. He is making a very quick turnaround to face an opponent that has left others completely baffled. Muhammed is riding in on an 8 fight win streak with his last win being a finish. His high pace striking combined with a grueling ground game has smothered his opponents. Unfortunately for him, I think Burns will be able to solve this puzzle. Durinho hits harder, has a world class ground game, and with the fight being three rounds the cardio shouldn’t be an issue.
Pick: Burns by dec
Main Event
Aljamain Sterling (22-3) vs Henry Cejudo (16-2)
Bantamweight Championship
I am still kind of surprised this fight is even happening, but here we are with Henry Cejudo returning from “retirement” to face the bantamweight champion, Aljamain Sterling. When Cejudo “retired” in May of 2020, he had just finished Dominick Cruz, he was on a 6 fight win streak (with 4 of those being title fights), and he was a double champion (Bantamweight and Flyweight). Since retiring he has stayed involved in the sport by working with fighters like Zhang Weili, Deiveson Figueiredo, and Jon Jones. Meanwhile, Sterling has put in the work to grind his way to the top of the Bantamweight division where he now reigns as champion. His 8 fight win streak includes 3 finishes, including his latest TKO victory over T.J. Dillashaw. His championship career is a controversial topic, but at the end of the day it doesn’t matter how he won the title or how impressive his defenses have been. Sterling is the champion with a champion level skill set. His well rounded abilities, active streak, and size will prove to be difficult for the challenger to handle. Granted, when we consider that the challenger is Henry “Triple C” Cejudo, who is undefeated at Bantamweight, it adds some spice to the mix! I still have too many questions to confidently lean towards the former champ. Is this return just a money grab or is Cejudo serious? What will Cejudo look like after over three years away? Will he have ring rust or will it be like he hasn’t left? Will Sterling’s size and skills counteract Cejudo’s best offensive weapons? Not knowing any of these answers almost makes me want to pick Sterling for the finish, but out of respect for Cejudo’s former abilities I can’t pull the trigger there.
Pick: Sterling by decision
Peep these Prelims
Strawweight~Marina Rodrigues vs Virna Jandiroba
Pick: Rodriguez by dec
Light Heavyweight~Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Devin Clark
Pick: Nzechukwu by KO
Lightweight~Drew Dober vs Matt Frevola
Pick: Dober by KO
